An interesting analysis of Tier 1 versus TCE.
The Swedish approach to nationalization summarized.
The collapse of the hedge fund industry?
The Chinese and others continue to buy US treasuries, despite major misgivings.
Non-high yield issues are successful in the market.
Moody's predicts that the U.S. junk bond default rate will hit 15.3 percent by the end of 2009 (this compares with 3.3 percent in 2008 and .3 percent in 2007.
Look to relative prices (exchange ratios) rather than absolute prices in public "stock for stock" deals. These should be more and more common given the credit market.
Downturns that follow a financial crisis are long and deep, an interesting historical analysis of "severe banking busts."
Moody's predicts 10-12% high yeild default rate, 1.5 reduction in GDP in 2009. Do the credit rating agencies have any credibility left?
With commercial property prices falling by as much as 40 percent from peak-to-trough, servicers may adopt an "extend everything" policy since liquidating assets in a distressed and illiquid market may cause deeper losses.
Moody's predicts 10-12% high yeild default rate, 1.5 reduction in GDP in 2009. Do the credit rating agencies have any credibility left?
Excellent analysis of the appropriate way to structure an automotive bailout.
Title says it all.
How long will it take you to make back your investment losses? An interesting tool by the New York Times.
With banks facing increasing losses, is there any doubt fresh capital will be needed. What is the likelihood that they will be eager to lend in this atmospere?
DIP financing is the lifeblood/oxygen of any restructuring inside of bankruptcy. The current lack of DIP financing in the marketplace is well known to turnaround professionals. There is no questions that this will lead to more liquidations than would otherwise be the case.
Although investment grade companies should have sufficient liquidity to operate through 2009, Moody s notes that 15% of non investment grade borrows face a likelihood of violating covenants.
Treasury bubble could be very risky to the world economy.
PIK toggle and covenant light loans result workout delays and a corresponding decreased in leverage loan recovery rates.
Distressed media assets not attracting much interest. Is this due to industry issues or a larger symptom of the deal market?
A summary of the deals done at the end of this cycle indicate an exercise in overleverage. Private Equity is a creature of leverage. Has the model been pertinently changed or is this a temporary setback?
Is anyone really surprised that a federally guaranteed bankruptcy would not impact auto purchasers decision making? GM needs to go into a court supervised restructuring now and begin the process.
Deflationary risks defined.
The pendulum never stops in the middle. LP's over allocating to private equity in 2005-2006 (combined with the denominator effect) has led to a dramatic pullback in 2008-2009. The question is whether the 2009-2010 vintage will have dramatically increased returns.
Excellent article on the inevitable bankruptcy of GM. Health care costs, warranty costs, supplier financing, etc are all addressed.
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