FT Alphaville Blog ArchiveThis is why Tier 1 is irrelevent

An interesting analysis of Tier 1 versus TCE.

FT Alphavill Blog Archive Knowing our banks, knowing yours

The Swedish approach to nationalization summarized.

Collapsing Hedge Fund Industry - Wall Street Column - Jesse Eisinger - Portfolio.com

The collapse of the hedge fund industry?

FT Alphaville Blog Archive We hate you guy even more now

The Chinese and others continue to buy US treasuries, despite major misgivings.

Corporate Debt Issues Continue the Recovery - - CFO.com

Non-high yield issues are successful in the market.

Moody's: Uncertainty Fogs Junk Outlook - - CFO.com

Moody's predicts that the U.S. junk bond default rate will hit 15.3 percent by the end of 2009 (this compares with 3.3 percent in 2008 and .3 percent in 2007.

Stock Prices Should Not Stop Deals, M.&A. Lawyer Argues - DealBook Blog - NYTimes.com

Look to relative prices (exchange ratios) rather than absolute prices in public "stock for stock" deals. These should be more and more common given the credit market.

Gloom at the AEA meetings | Drastic times | The Economist

Downturns that follow a financial crisis are long and deep, an interesting historical analysis of "severe banking busts."

Moody's sees severe recession, rising defaults | Reuters

Moody's predicts 10-12% high yeild default rate, 1.5 reduction in GDP in 2009. Do the credit rating agencies have any credibility left?

JPM Commercial Real Estate loan "Nightmare" predictions

With commercial property prices falling by as much as 40 percent from peak-to-trough, servicers may adopt an "extend everything" policy since liquidating assets in a distressed and illiquid market may cause deeper losses.

XE.com - UPDATE 1-Moody's sees severe recession; default rates up

Moody's predicts 10-12% high yeild default rate, 1.5 reduction in GDP in 2009. Do the credit rating agencies have any credibility left?

Bankruptcy With A Twist - Forbes.com - Ed Altman

Excellent analysis of the appropriate way to structure an automotive bailout.

Roubini forecasts recession will last 2 years - MarketWatch

Title says it all.

Calculate Your Financial Comeback - Interactive Graphic - NYTimes.com

How long will it take you to make back your investment losses? An interesting tool by the New York Times.

Banks may need to raise fresh capital in '09: Whitney | Reuters

With banks facing increasing losses, is there any doubt fresh capital will be needed. What is the likelihood that they will be eager to lend in this atmospere?

Loans to Companies in Bankruptcy Dry Up - BusinessWeek

DIP financing is the lifeblood/oxygen of any restructuring inside of bankruptcy. The current lack of DIP financing in the marketplace is well known to turnaround professionals. There is no questions that this will lead to more liquidations than would otherwise be the case.

Ten Percent of Cos. May Lack Liquidity in 2009: Moody's - Capital Markets - CFO.com

Although investment grade companies should have sufficient liquidity to operate through 2009, Moody s notes that 15% of non investment grade borrows face a likelihood of violating covenants.

Days of Treasuries as risk-free benchmark now in rearview mirror - Financial Week

Treasury bubble could be very risky to the world economy.

Debt Recovery Prospects Darken - WSJ.com

PIK toggle and covenant light loans result workout delays and a corresponding decreased in leverage loan recovery rates.

FT.com / Companies / Media - Newspaper asset sales draw few buyers

Distressed media assets not attracting much interest. Is this due to industry issues or a larger symptom of the deal market?

A Requiem for Private Equity - Mergers, Acquisitions, Venture Capital, Hedge Funds -- DealBook - New York Times

A summary of the deals done at the end of this cycle indicate an exercise in overleverage. Private Equity is a creature of leverage. Has the model been pertinently changed or is this a temporary setback?

Chapter 11 May Not Deter Some Car Buyers - WSJ.com

Is anyone really surprised that a federally guaranteed bankruptcy would not impact auto purchasers decision making? GM needs to go into a court supervised restructuring now and begin the process.

FT.com / Columnists / Martin Wolf - 'Helicopter Ben' confronts the challenge of a lifetime

Deflationary risks defined.

Limited horizons (The Deal Newsweekly)

The pendulum never stops in the middle. LP's over allocating to private equity in 2005-2006 (combined with the denominator effect) has led to a dramatic pullback in 2008-2009. The question is whether the 2009-2010 vintage will have dramatically increased returns.

GM in bankruptcy (The Deal Newsweekly)

Excellent article on the inevitable bankruptcy of GM. Health care costs, warranty costs, supplier financing, etc are all addressed.

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